Humanoid Robot Stocks Rebound as Tesla Audit and Mass Production Signals Land
On the morning of September 21, the humanoid robot concept staged a volatile rebound. Meihu Co. and Mingxin Xuteng hit the daily limit, Fulih旺 rose over 13%, Xunjiexing over 11%, while Guangri, Daye, Guanxiang, Shenhao and others gained over 7%. Junsheng Electronics rose over 6%, and Tuopu Group and Sanhua Intelligent Controls gained over 4%.
This rebound is not an isolated event; it comes as two developments land simultaneously: Tesla's supplier audit and progress on its Texas production line.
Tesla's audit covers the Yangtze River Delta, not just Ningbo. According to media reports, Tesla's robot team has landed in Ningbo to audit factories, starting with supply chain companies like Tuopu Group, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, and Junsheng Electronics. These firms mainly supply core electromechanical components such as joint modules, actuators, and precision structural parts.
Industry chain sources say the audit is not limited to Ningbo but also covers supply chain companies in Hangzhou, Shanghai, and other parts of the Yangtze River Delta. These companies had already secured orders for Tesla's humanoid robot before the audit. The audit will evaluate production line quality and compliance, and production will begin soon after passing.
The main structure of the Texas production line is nearing completion. Drone footage shows that the main structure of Tesla's dedicated Optimus production line in Texas may be close to completion, with steel structure and concrete pouring progressing simultaneously. The line is planned to start production in 2027 with an annual capacity target of 10 million units.
Meihu Co.'s limit-up needs to be viewed in the context of its position in the supply chain. On the day's gainers list, Meihu, Mingxin Xuteng, Wanxiang Qianchao, and Mosu Technology are all auto parts or auto supply chain-related companies. Tesla's audit news directly stimulated these companies that have entered or are expected to enter the Optimus supply chain. Fulih旺 and Xunjiexing have layouts in precision structural parts and electronics manufacturing, respectively.
From a longer-term perspective, the rebound is set against the background of sector sentiment and trading volume having been compressed to low levels. A weekly note from Zheshang Securities mentioned that since August, the humanoid robot sector's trading volume has been in a low range below 40 billion yuan, touching a low of 23.2 billion yuan in September. With Tesla's mass production advancing, sector sentiment and volume are expected to recover in tandem. A GF Securities research report gave a similar judgment: robot sector volume, price, and sentiment have reached low levels, and combined with industrial mass production progress, a relatively good allocation opportunity may be emerging.
The GF Securities report disclosed Tesla Optimus's mass production cadence guidance: 150 units per week in July, 300 per week in August, 1,000 per week in September, reaching a capacity rhythm of 2,500 per week by year-end. According to the plan, more than 10,000 Optimus units will roll off the line in 2026. The long-term goals are clearer: Tesla has confirmed it is about to enter mass production and proposed long-term targets of 1 million units per year for V3 and 10 million per year for V4. It also announced that it is installing first-generation Optimus production equipment at its Fremont factory.
A shift from hardware to software is also taking place. Multiple humanoid robot manufacturers have entered mass production, indicating that hardware solutions are basically mature, and the industry focus will gradually shift to the software layer of intelligence and the compute hardware layer. On Tesla's Q2 earnings call, Musk said Optimus will adopt the same end-to-end strategy as FSD autonomous driving. Initially, it will be trained through employee demonstrations and a dedicated data collection team, and later, after a reinforcement learning phase that collects data through real-machine trial-and-error closed loops, Optimus will fully acquire human-like intelligence.
Meihu Co.'s limit-up is a concentrated pricing by funds of supply chain targets amid rising certainty of Tesla's mass production. The phrase "production will begin soon after the audit passes" explains the day's market action better than any long-term target.