Goldman Sachs Raises Humanoid Robot Forecast to 6.5M, Sees 49% Price Drop
Goldman Sachs recently disclosed two sets of core robotics data. It raised its 2035 global humanoid robot shipment forecast from 1.4 million units to 6.5 million units, a 4.6x increase, with the corresponding market value at about $138 billion—3.6 times higher than before.
In a global Physical AI report released in late August, the investment bank predicted the average unit price of humanoid robots would fall from $41,800 in 2025 to $21,300 in 2035, a nearly 49% decline over ten years.
Placed together, the two data points invite a straightforward inference: as prices fall, scale will rise. But that conclusion needs qualification.
Price cuts are already visible. According to incomplete industry data, they have appeared in humanoid, quadruped, industrial, exoskeleton and cleaning robots. Unitree's R1 fell from 39,900 yuan to 29,900 yuan, while its G1 dropped from 99,000 yuan to 85,000 yuan in some channels. Songyan Power's Xiaobumi is priced at 9,998 yuan, or about 9,118 yuan after subsidies. Leju's Kuafu fell from about 414,000 yuan in 2024 to 308,000 yuan in 2025. Booster K1 cut its starting price from 39,900 yuan to 29,900 yuan. Maibu's products dropped from over 10,000 yuan to 6,999 yuan, about 30%. DEEP Robotics' Jueying X series fell from 357,300 yuan in 2023 to 287,500 yuan in 2025. Dobot's CR series went from 66,000 to 56,800 yuan per unit. Ecovacs' T90S PRO fell from 5,057.64 yuan in August 2026 to 4,294.74 yuan in September, and DJI's ROMO P from 6,799 to 4,299 yuan.
Consumer products saw the largest cuts, ranging from 10% to 30%. Among industry-grade robots, Leju's Kuafu humanoid had the biggest drop at about 25.6%, while DEEP Robotics' Jueying X quadruped fell about 13.8%. Industrial and collaborative robots generally had smaller cuts of 8% to 12%. Some industrial robot categories even raised prices because of higher raw material costs. EFORT issued a price adjustment notice in June 2026, increasing prices for its entire painting robot line and related options by 5% to 8%.
A wave of low-priced humanoid launches is even more striking. Zhongqing's SA01 is priced at about 38,500 yuan; SWANCOR's Qiyuan Q1 starts at 20,000 yuan and Qiyuan T1 at 15,999 yuan; Songyan Power's N2 Xiaowantong is 39,900 yuan; Yuandian Robotics' Xiaoqiao has a launch price of 8,888 yuan; Weilai Power's K1 starts at 19,800 yuan; Tianchuang's T4-C is 23,900 yuan; and Bluebug Embodied Intelligence's Xiaobai starts at 9,800 yuan.
Pan Helin, a member of the MIIT expert committee, noted that current sub-10,000-yuan humanoids are deliberately stripped-down products. They can only perform basic display, social and entertainment actions, with clear shortcomings in motion precision, payload, battery life and environmental adaptability. They mainly meet basic companionship, entertainment and display needs.
Lower prices directly reduce the threshold for accessing robotics. Data from CAICT shows that the overall domestic localization rate of core humanoid robot components has exceeded 75%, and prices for key parts such as harmonic reducers and six-axis force sensors are falling in tandem. But lower prices do not equal scale. An analyst at a top international investment bank pointed out that past humanoid orders were small and essentially experimental. Incremental or repeat orders are an important leading indicator of future mass production and scale.
Shipment structure also reveals the gap. Counterpoint data shows that in the first half of 2026, entertainment performances plus education and data collection still accounted for more than 60% of global humanoid robot shipments. Smart manufacturing accounted for only 13%, and warehouse logistics only 5%. Less than 20% are truly working in factories and warehouses. Price declines are a necessary condition for scale, but far from sufficient. The real core of scale is not a low enough price, but stable repeat demand after costs continue to fall with output.