Morgan Stanley: SpaceX to Shift Toward Robotics and Space Infrastructure by 2027

Morgan Stanley said in a research note that SpaceX is moving past the peak of the neocloud cycle, with winners in the sector set to be distinguished by intelligence density per watt, per dollar and per second.

The bank expects a strategic shift by 2027 toward robotics, mesh networking and space infrastructure. It forecasts that SpaceX's compute capacity will exceed 8 gigawatts by the end of 2027, below Elon Musk's expectation of more than 13 gigawatts.

According to Morgan Stanley, chip supply, power availability and access to financing will determine the pace of expansion. The note frames the neocloud peak as a transition point: as rental compute margins compress, differentiation will come from how efficiently SpaceX converts power and capital into AI throughput.

For investors, the shift implies a longer-term opportunity tied to physical infrastructure and robotics. Morgan Stanley's forecast is more conservative than Musk's target, highlighting constraints around chips, electricity and funding. The bank reiterated its overweight rating and $300 price target.